Everton vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Fulham travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton) versus 0.90 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Everton, 2 for Fulham and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Fulham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.22 xG and Fulham 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.835 / defence 0.983 | Fulham attack 0.717 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Everton games / 45 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 30% | Fulham 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Fulham 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 30% | Fulham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Everton 1.22 / Fulham 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.835 / def 0.983 | Fulham attack 0.717 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Fulham xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Fulham kick off?
Everton vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Fulham part of?
Everton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Fulham a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Everton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 3 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Everton and Fulham in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.83) and Fulham's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.31
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Everton xG
Total xG
2.12
0.90
Fulham xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Everton and 0.90 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 14D 16L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (16W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.31 PPG, Fulham on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Fulham have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Fulham away?
Everton's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.23 PPG; Fulham away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Everton or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Everton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Fulham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Fulham?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton) and 46% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fulham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Everton's recent games and 46% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Fulham tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fulham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.