Salford City 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 10 as Salford City welcome AFC Wimbledon to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AFC Wimbledon's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Salford City's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salford City, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 64% versus AFC Wimbledon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 62% | AFC Wimbledon 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 0.97 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.835 / defence 1.076 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.739 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Salford City games / 52 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 34%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | AFC Wimbledon 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 60% | AFC Wimbledon 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Salford City 0.97 / AFC Wimbledon 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.835 / def 1.076 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.739 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.97
AFC Wimbledon xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Salford City 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 34% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Salford City and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 2 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon in?
Salford City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.83x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.18
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Salford City xG
Total xG
1.94
0.97
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Salford City and 0.97 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 14D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.50 PPG from 52 outings (21W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Wimbledon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Salford City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salford City's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.40 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 14W 14D 24L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
AFC Wimbledon's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.08 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Salford City or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
2
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 73%, AFC Wimbledon 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Salford City) and 31% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 42%; AFC Wimbledon in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Salford City's recent matches and 35% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Salford City's recent games and 31% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 0.97 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.97 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 34% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 62%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Salford City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.