Morecambe 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mazuma Mobile Stadium plays host to Morecambe versus Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Morecambe have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Morecambe have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mazuma Mobile Stadium this season.
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Port Vale are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Morecambe 1W, Port Vale 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Morecambe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Morecambe — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 61% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 62% | Port Vale 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.09 xG and Port Vale 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.962 / defence 1.404 | Port Vale attack 0.952 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.251. Data: 61 Morecambe games / 15 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 51%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Port Vale 1.96. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Morecambe 60% | Port Vale 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mazuma Mobile Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Morecambe 1.09 / Port Vale 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.962 / def 1.404 | Port Vale attack 0.952 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Port Vale xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Port Vale kick off?
Morecambe vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Morecambe 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Morecambe vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Port Vale part of?
Morecambe vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 25% chance of winning, Port Vale a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Morecambe and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Morecambe 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Morecambe and Port Vale in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Port Vale (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (0.96) and Port Vale's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.95x) against Morecambe's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
25%
4.04
24%
4.12
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.76
1.67
Port Vale xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.67 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Morecambe's recent record stands at 19W 14D 28L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 28L across 61 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Morecambe against 1.16 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Morecambe have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Morecambe are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.05 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 19W 14D 28L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 19W 14D 28L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.13 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Port Vale go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Morecambe
0
Draws
3
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 1, Port Vale have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Port Vale 1-0 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 63%, Port Vale 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Morecambe) and 40% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 33%; Port Vale in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Morecambe's recent matches and 33% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Morecambe vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Morecambe's recent games and 40% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Port Vale tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Morecambe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Morecambe 0-1 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.09 xG and Port Vale 1.67 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Morecambe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.96 / defence 1.40 against Port Vale attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 25% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 51%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 62%, Port Vale 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.16 PPG, Port Vale 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.