Exeter City vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 44%, yet in-form York provide a compelling counter-argument — this Exeter City vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and York meet at St James Park in League Two, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Exeter City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
York (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 League Two outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.43. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. York have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, York have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, York are the stronger side — 0.77 PPG clear of the hosts (1.57 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Exeter City, 1 for York and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with York winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
York half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 29% versus York 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Exeter City 14% | York 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.08 xG and York 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.656 / defence 0.731 | York attack 0.831 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.008. Exeter City's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Exeter City's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 Exeter City games / 7 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 44% | Draw 37% | York 18%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | York 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — York's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York (1.57 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 30% | York 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 44% | Draw 37% | York 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Exeter City 1.08 / York 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.656 / def 0.731 | York attack 0.831 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.61
York xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs York kick off?
Exeter City vs York is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at St James Park.
Where is Exeter City vs York being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs York part of?
Exeter City vs York is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs York?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 44% chance of winning, York a 18% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs York?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Exeter City and York will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and York?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 0 | York 1W.
What form are Exeter City and York in?
Exeter City (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. York (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 0.66x the league average against York's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York's attack (0.83x) against Exeter City's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
44%
2.25
37%
2.68
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.70
0.61
York xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Exeter City and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.61 for York, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Exeter City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, York sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for York, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
York carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Exeter City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Exeter City's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Exeter City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.86 scored and 1.43 conceded. York's attacking output running into Exeter City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Exeter City have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; York in 71%.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Early Season
York
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and York in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while York have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or York away?
Exeter City's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.50 PPG; York away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Exeter City or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, York in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Exeter City
0
Draws
1
York
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and York?
From 1 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 0, York have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and York last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when York 2-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and York?
York have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 25%, York 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Exeter City and 25% for York.
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play York?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Exeter City's recent matches and 75% of York's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Exeter City's recent games and 25% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and York tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, York in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.