Bradford 1-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 43 as Bradford welcome Notts County to University of Bradford Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bradford's home record at University of Bradford Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bradford are significantly better at University of Bradford Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Notts County — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Notts County's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bradford carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bradford's 20% rate and Notts County's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Notts County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Bradford's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Notts County winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Notts County have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bradford in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Notts County in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 51% versus Notts County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 47% | Notts County 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.54 xG and Notts County 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.233 / defence 0.661 | Notts County attack 1.181 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.119. Bradford's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 88 Bradford games / 88 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 53% | Draw 26% | Notts County 21%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Notts County 4.76. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Notts County lead the H2H ledger, but Bradford carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 20% | Notts County 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 53% | Draw 26% | Notts County 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Bradford 1.54 / Notts County 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.233 / def 0.661 | Notts County attack 1.181 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Bradford (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Notts County xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Notts County kick off?
Bradford vs Notts County kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 17 April 2025 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Notts County?
Bradford 1 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Bradford vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Notts County part of?
Bradford vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 53% chance of winning, Notts County a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bradford and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Notts County?
Record (3 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 0 | Notts County 3W.
What form are Bradford and Notts County in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 1.23x the league average against Notts County's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.80
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.41
0.87
Notts County xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
22.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bradford and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bradford and 0.87 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bradford come into this having played 88 games, going 40W 22D 26L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.47 PPG from 88 outings (37W 18D 33L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.61 PPG, Notts County on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bradford's home form reads 25W 11D 8L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.27 points per game from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.72 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Notts County in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 40W 22D 26L in their last 88 games (1.61 PPG), while Notts County have gone 37W 18D 33L in their last 88 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Notts County away?
Bradford's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.95 PPG; Notts County away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bradford or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Notts County in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Notts County runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2024, when Notts County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Bradford
1
Draws
3
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Notts County?
From 5 meetings on record, Bradford have won 1, Notts County have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Notts County 0-1 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 50%, Notts County 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 54% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bradford's recent matches and 59% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bradford's recent games and 54% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Notts County tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Notts County in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Notts County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and Notts County finished level at 1-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.54 xG and Notts County 0.87 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.23 / defence 0.66 against Notts County attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 53% | Draw 26% | Notts County 21%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 47%, Notts County 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Notts County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.61 PPG, Notts County 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.