Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Mansfield Town have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Stockport County's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Stockport County winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mansfield Town have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Mansfield Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Mansfield Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.40 xG and Mansfield Town 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.250 / defence 0.926 | Mansfield Town attack 0.820 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.171. Data: 88 Stockport County games / 88 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Mansfield Town 4.17. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Mansfield Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Stockport County 1.40 / Mansfield Town 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.250 / def 0.926 | Mansfield Town attack 0.820 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Mansfield Town xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Stockport County 0 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 49% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stockport County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Record (7 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 4W.
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.82x) against Stockport County's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.66
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Mansfield Town xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.89 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 43W 25D 20L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Mansfield Town's form line: 28W 25D 35L from 88 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mansfield Town.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.09 PPG from 43 outings (27W 9D 7L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 12W 13D 18L from 43 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 43W 25D 20L in their last 88 games (1.75 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 28W 25D 35L in their last 88 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stockport County's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.09 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stockport County
2
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 58%, Mansfield Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Stockport County) and 51% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Stockport County's games and 58% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Stockport County's recent games and 51% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Stockport County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 0-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.40 xG and Mansfield Town 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Mansfield Town attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 49% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Mansfield Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Mansfield Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.