Stevenage 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stevenage (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 1D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Stevenage's favour (1.40 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Stevenage have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cambridge United in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Cambridge United 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Cambridge United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.48 xG and Cambridge United 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.963 / defence 0.632 | Cambridge United attack 0.681 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.252. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Stevenage games / 56 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 60% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 13%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cambridge United's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Cambridge United 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 60% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 32% | xG Stevenage 1.48 / Cambridge United 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.963 / def 0.632 | Cambridge United attack 0.681 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Cambridge United xG
32%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Cambridge United kick off?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Stevenage 0 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Stevenage vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Cambridge United part of?
Stevenage vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 60% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Stevenage and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.68x) against Stevenage's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 2-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
60%
1.65
26%
3.82
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.02
0.54
Cambridge United xG
1.65
60%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
3%
32.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.54 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 16D 17L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 13W 13D 30L from 56 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambridge United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (14W 8D 6L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 4W 5D 19L from 28 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Cambridge United away?
Stevenage's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.79 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stevenage
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Cambridge United?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Stevenage) and 32% (Cambridge United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 46% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Cambridge United in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stevenage's recent matches and 32% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Stevenage 0-2 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.48 xG and Cambridge United 0.54 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.96 / defence 0.63 against Cambridge United attack 0.68 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 60% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 13%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Cambridge United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.