Shrewsbury 1-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Croud Meadow plays host to Shrewsbury versus Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shrewsbury have posted 2W 1D 7L at The Croud Meadow — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Crawley Town have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Crawley Town are 0.80 PPG clear of Shrewsbury in recent League One fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shrewsbury lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 8.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2024, ended 5–3 with Shrewsbury winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 42% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Crawley Town 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.668 / defence 1.263 | Crawley Town attack 0.980 / defence 1.496. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.174. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.496 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 91 Shrewsbury games / 45 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 33% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 40%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 40% | Crawley Town 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 33% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Shrewsbury 1.30 / Crawley Town 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.668 / def 1.263 | Crawley Town attack 0.980 / def 1.496 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Crawley Town xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town?
Shrewsbury 1 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town part of?
Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 33% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shrewsbury and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Crawley Town in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.67x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.98x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.79
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.75
1.45
Crawley Town xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.45 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 91 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 21W 18D 52L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 33W 16D 42L from 91 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.26 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.00 PPG from 45 outings (13W 6D 26L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 15W 7D 23L from 45 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.47 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 21W 18D 52L in their last 91 games (0.89 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 33W 16D 42L in their last 91 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.00 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 2, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Crawley Town?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 42%, Crawley Town 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Shrewsbury) and 62% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 44% of games; Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 51% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 62% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Crawley Town 1.45 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.50, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 33% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 40%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.89 PPG, Crawley Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.