Peterborough 1-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Wigan (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Peterborough face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Peterborough welcome Wigan to Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 29). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wigan — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Wigan have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Wigan's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Wigan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Peterborough. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Peterborough 0–3 Wigan — a Wigan win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Wigan have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 65% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 68% | Wigan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.17 xG and Wigan 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.148 / defence 1.355 | Wigan attack 0.999 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Wigan bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.355 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 73 games and Wigan's last 72.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.57 | Draw 3.97 | Wigan 2.13. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 70% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Peterborough 1.17 / Wigan 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.148 / def 1.355 | Wigan attack 0.999 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Wigan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Wigan xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Wigan kick off?
Peterborough vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Peterborough 1 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Peterborough vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Wigan part of?
Peterborough vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 28% chance of winning, Wigan a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.15) and Wigan's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 73 games and Wigan's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
28%
3.57
25%
3.97
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.75
1.58
Wigan xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.58 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 29W 16D 27L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 29W 16D 27L from 72 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.43 PPG, Wigan on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 9D 10L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 12W 9D 15L from their last 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Wigan
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 29W 16D 27L in their last 72 games (1.43 PPG), while Wigan have gone 29W 16D 27L in their last 72 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Wigan away?
Peterborough's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.67 PPG; Wigan away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Peterborough's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
4
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 2, Wigan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Wigan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Peterborough and 50% for Wigan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Peterborough's games and 58% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Peterborough and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Peterborough's matches and 50% of Wigan's.
Do Peterborough and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Peterborough's recent matches and 83% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Wigan 1-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.17 xG and Wigan 1.58 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wigan landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.35 against Wigan attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 28% | Draw 25% | Wigan 47%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 68%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Wigan's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.43 PPG, Wigan 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 29
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →