Stockport County 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Shrewsbury.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stockport County and Shrewsbury meet at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Stockport County's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Shrewsbury (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Stockport County edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Stockport County 2–0 Shrewsbury — a Stockport County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Shrewsbury 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 53% | Shrewsbury 42%). Note also that Shrewsbury surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.73 xG and Shrewsbury 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.062 / defence 0.993 | Shrewsbury attack 0.844 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 27 games and Shrewsbury's last 72.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 21%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Shrewsbury 4.72. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 60% (last 10 away games).

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