Northampton 2-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 39%, yet in-form Burton Albion provide a compelling counter-argument — this Northampton vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Burton Albion to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Northampton stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Northampton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Burton Albion are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 52% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Burton Albion 49%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Northampton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.953 / defence 1.190 | Burton Albion attack 0.834 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Data: built from Northampton's last 15 games and Burton Albion's last 62.
Result probabilities: Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 33%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.59 | Draw 3.48 | Burton Albion 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burton Albion (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Northampton 70% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Northampton 1.26 / Burton Albion 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.953 / def 1.190 | Burton Albion attack 0.834 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Northampton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Burton Albion xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Northampton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Northampton 2 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Northampton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Burton Albion part of?
Northampton vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 39% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Northampton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.95) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 15 games and Burton Albion's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.48
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.40
1.14
Burton Albion xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Northampton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Northampton and 1.14 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 16D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.25 PPG from 61 outings (20W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.59 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.20 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
Northampton (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 27W 16D 18L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Burton Albion away?
Northampton's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.67 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Northampton or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Burton Albion have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2025, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Burton Albion?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 57%, Burton Albion 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Northampton) and 53% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Burton Albion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Northampton's games and 53% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Northampton and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Northampton's recent games and 53% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Northampton's recent matches and 60% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Burton Albion 2-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.26 xG and Burton Albion 1.14 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 39% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 33%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.59 PPG, Burton Albion 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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