Cheltenham 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wigan at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Wigan travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Wigan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wigan are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cheltenham, 1 for Wigan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Wigan in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 33% versus Wigan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 43% | Wigan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.94 xG and Wigan 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.642 / defence 1.159 | Wigan attack 1.017 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Cheltenham's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Cheltenham games / 16 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Wigan 2.17. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Cheltenham 40% | Wigan 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cheltenham 0.94 / Wigan 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.642 / def 1.159 | Wigan attack 1.017 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Wigan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wigan xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Wigan kick off?
Cheltenham vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Cheltenham vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Wigan part of?
Cheltenham vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 26% chance of winning, Wigan a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cheltenham and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Wigan?
Record (2 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 1 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Wigan in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.64x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.48
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.30
1.36
Wigan xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.36 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 16W 14D 31L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 28L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.02 PPG, Wigan on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Wigan in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 16W 14D 31L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while Wigan have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Wigan away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.20 PPG; Wigan away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cheltenham and Wigan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
3
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Wigan?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Wigan have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2024, when Wigan 1-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 37%, Wigan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cheltenham) and 47% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 60% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cheltenham's recent games and 47% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Wigan tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Wigan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Cheltenham and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.94 xG and Wigan 1.36 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.64 / defence 1.16 against Wigan attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 43%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.02 PPG, Wigan 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.