Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Crawley Town in League One (matchday 29). Kick-off: Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Mansfield Town have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Mansfield Town have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Crawley Town managing 2 and 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Mansfield Town 2–0 Crawley Town — a Mansfield Town win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Mansfield Town and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 63% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.78 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.888 / defence 1.036 | Crawley Town attack 0.805 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.565 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 25 games and Crawley Town's last 25.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.78 | Draw 4.26 | Crawley Town 4.89. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Mansfield Town 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.78 / Crawley Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.888 / def 1.036 | Crawley Town attack 0.805 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crawley Town xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 56% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mansfield Town and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 0.89x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.81x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 25 games and Crawley Town's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.26
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.75
0.97
Crawley Town xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
28.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.97 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town come into this having played 71 games, going 35W 18D 18L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.31 PPG from 71 outings (27W 12D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mansfield Town's home form reads 18W 10D 7L across their last 35 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 35 away games (13W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.46 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 35W 18D 18L in their last 71 games (1.73 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 27W 12D 32L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.83 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town, the earliest from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Mansfield Town 4-1 Crawley Town on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Mansfield Town
0
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2025: Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Crawley Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 60%, Crawley Town 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Mansfield Town) and 57% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Crawley Town in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 49% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mansfield Town and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 57% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 74% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.78 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Crawley Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.56, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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