Cardiff 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Burton Albion travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 September 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cardiff City Stadium this season.
Burton Albion — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Cardiff are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 54% versus Burton Albion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 44% | Burton Albion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.59 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.175 / defence 1.104 | Burton Albion attack 0.896 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.100. Data: 9 Cardiff games / 54 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 49% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 26%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Burton Albion 3.85. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 60% | Burton Albion 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 49% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Cardiff 1.59 / Burton Albion 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.175 / def 1.104 | Burton Albion attack 0.896 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burton Albion xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cardiff vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Burton Albion?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Cardiff vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Burton Albion part of?
Cardiff vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 49% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cardiff and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Burton Albion in?
Cardiff (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.00
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.67
1.09
Burton Albion xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
18.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.09 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 19D 20L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.96 PPG from 54 outings (12W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.00 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 15W 19D 20L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 16D 26L in their last 54 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Burton Albion away?
Cardiff's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.38 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Burton Albion runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Burton Albion 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 46%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cardiff) and 46% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Burton Albion in 35%; Cardiff have failed to score in 27% of games; Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cardiff's recent games and 46% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.59 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 49% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 26%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.