Wrexham 1-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackburn make the trip to Racecourse Ground to face Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Wrexham (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham at Racecourse Ground this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Wrexham, 1.30 for Blackburn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 45% versus Blackburn 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 42% | Blackburn 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.07 xG and Blackburn 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.062 / defence 1.009 | Blackburn attack 0.966 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.206. Blackburn's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 17 Wrexham games / 62 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 33% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 38%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Blackburn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 60% | Blackburn 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 33% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Wrexham 1.07 / Blackburn 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.062 / def 1.009 | Blackburn attack 0.966 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Blackburn xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Blackburn kick off?
Wrexham vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Blackburn?
Wrexham 1 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Wrexham vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Blackburn part of?
Wrexham vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 33% chance of winning, Blackburn a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wrexham and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wrexham and Blackburn in?
Wrexham (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.06x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.97x) against Wrexham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 17/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.46
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.24
1.18
Blackburn xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.18 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wrexham's recent record stands at 32W 18D 12L from 62 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 27L across 62 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Blackburn heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 19W 8D 4L from 31 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 12W 5D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 32W 18D 12L in their last 62 games (1.84 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Blackburn away?
Wrexham's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.10 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Blackburn in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Blackburn?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Blackburn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Blackburn?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 48%, Blackburn 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wrexham) and 36% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Blackburn in 36%; Blackburn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Wrexham's recent matches and 32% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wrexham's recent games and 36% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Blackburn tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham and Blackburn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 18, as Wrexham and Blackburn drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.07 xG and Blackburn 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 0.77, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 33% | Draw 29% | Blackburn 38%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 42%, Blackburn 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.