West Brom 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as West Brom take on Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L at The Hawthorns — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Burnley have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Burnley — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 43% versus Burnley 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Burnley 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 0.64 xG and Burnley 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.652 / defence 0.666 | Burnley attack 0.919 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.993. West Brom's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. West Brom's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 West Brom games / 13 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 43% | Burnley 27%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 3.45 | Draw 2.33 | Burnley 3.70. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 13% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.25. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 87% probability — total xG of 1.25 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 13% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 23% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 0% | Burnley 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 43% | Burnley 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 13% | BTTS 23% | xG West Brom 0.64 / Burnley 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.652 / def 0.666 | Burnley attack 0.919 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Burnley xG
23%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Burnley kick off?
West Brom vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Burnley?
West Brom 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is West Brom vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Burnley part of?
West Brom vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 29% chance of winning, Burnley a 27% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both West Brom and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 13%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are West Brom and Burnley in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about West Brom vs Burnley?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.65x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.92x) against West Brom's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 59/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 30.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 0-1 (16.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 63% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.41
43%
2.31
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
28.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
West Brom xG
Total xG
1.25
0.61
Burnley xG
3.41
29%
Home win
2.31
43%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
35%
Over 1.5
2.86
65%
Under 1.5
1.54
13%
Over 2.5
7.69
87%
Under 2.5
1.15
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.42
77%
BTTS No
1.29
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28.7 | 17.5 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 30.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for West Brom and 0.61 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.25.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom's recent record stands at 22W 15D 14L from 51 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 26L across 51 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Brom by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.14 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Burnley in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 22W 15D 14L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Burnley have gone 11W 14D 26L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Burnley away?
West Brom's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.96 PPG; Burnley away: 0.96 PPG.
Have West Brom or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Burnley in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
West Brom
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Burnley 1-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 24%, Burnley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (West Brom) and 52% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 32% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of West Brom's recent matches and 56% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of West Brom's recent games and 52% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Burnley tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Burnley in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 14, as West Brom and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 0.64 xG and Burnley 0.61 xG, a combined 1.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.65 / defence 0.67 against Burnley attack 0.92 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 29% | Draw 43% | Burnley 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 13%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 37% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Burnley 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.