Swansea 3-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea at Swansea.com Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
QPR have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Swansea, 1.60 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Swansea 1W, QPR 2W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with QPR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 56% versus QPR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | QPR 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.13 xG and QPR 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.994 / defence 1.291 | QPR attack 0.881 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.025. Data: 68 Swansea games / 68 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 50% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Swansea 1.13 / QPR 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.994 / def 1.291 | QPR attack 0.881 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: QPR (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.17
QPR xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs QPR kick off?
Swansea vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs QPR?
Swansea 3 - 0 QPR.
Where is Swansea vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs QPR part of?
Swansea vs QPR is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 33% chance of winning, QPR a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swansea and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
Record (6 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 3 | QPR 2W.
What form are Swansea and QPR in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. QPR (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.88x) against Swansea's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.14
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.29
1.17
QPR xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Swansea and 1.17 for QPR, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 22W 18D 28L from 68 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 27L across 68 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Swansea against 1.19 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 11W 9D 13L from 33 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.03 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and QPR in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 22W 18D 28L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 21D 27L in their last 68 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or QPR away?
Swansea's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.27 PPG; QPR away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and QPR?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 52%, QPR 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 33% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; QPR in 30%; QPR in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Swansea's recent matches and 39% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 33% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and QPR tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, QPR in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat QPR 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.13 xG and QPR 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. QPR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, QPR 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
QPR's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.24 PPG, QPR 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.