Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hillsborough plays host to Sheffield Wednesday versus Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday's home record at Hillsborough: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.80 for Burnley — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sheffield Wednesday half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 36% versus Burnley 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 49% | Burnley 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 xG and Burnley 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.130 / defence 1.096 | Burnley attack 0.949 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Burnley's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Sheffield Wednesday games / 9 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Burnley 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 / Burnley 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.130 / def 1.096 | Burnley attack 0.949 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Sheffield Wednesday 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 42% chance of winning, Burnley a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.95x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.30
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Burnley xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.98 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 18W 8D 21L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 25L across 47 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Wednesday by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.17 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 18W 8D 21L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Burnley have gone 10W 12D 25L in their last 47 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Burnley away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 1.61 PPG; Burnley away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Burnley 4-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Burnley 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 56% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in 26% of games; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sheffield Wednesday's games and 61% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 56% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burnley in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.27 xG and Burnley 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burnley outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Burnley attack 0.95 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 30% | Burnley 28%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Burnley 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.