Plymouth 3-3 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Preston have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Plymouth against 1.30 for Preston. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Plymouth 0W, Preston 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Preston winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Preston 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 53% | Preston 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.91 xG and Preston 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.141 / defence 1.144 | Preston attack 0.859 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 0.944. Data: 57 Plymouth games / 57 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 59% | Draw 25% | Preston 16%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Preston 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 50% | Preston 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 59% | Draw 25% | Preston 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Plymouth 1.91 / Preston 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.141 / def 1.144 | Preston attack 0.859 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.398 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Preston xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Preston kick off?
Plymouth vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Preston?
Plymouth 3 - 3 Preston.
Where is Plymouth vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Preston part of?
Plymouth vs Preston is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 59% chance of winning, Preston a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plymouth and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Preston?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Preston 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Preston in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Preston (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Plymouth vs Preston?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.86x) against Plymouth's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.05
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.84
0.93
Preston xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
41.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.93 for Preston, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Preston?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth's recent record stands at 16W 14D 27L from 57 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 23L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Plymouth against 1.33 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 13W 6D 9L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Preston's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Preston in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 16W 14D 27L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Preston have gone 21W 13D 23L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Preston away?
Plymouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Preston away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Preston have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Preston 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 57%, Preston 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Plymouth) and 46% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Plymouth's recent matches and 39% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Plymouth's recent games and 46% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Preston tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Preston in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Preston share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 12, as Plymouth and Preston drew 3-3 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.91 xG and Preston 0.93 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Preston attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 59% | Draw 25% | Preston 16%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 53%, Preston 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Preston's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.09 PPG, Preston 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.