Millwall 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Plymouth travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 October 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Millwall at 1.00 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Millwall have won 2, Plymouth 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Millwall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 41% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 38% | Plymouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 2.00 xG and Plymouth 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.996 / defence 1.135 | Plymouth attack 0.669 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 0.962. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing Millwall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Millwall games / 56 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 66% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 11%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Millwall (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 50% | Plymouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 66% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Millwall 2.00 / Plymouth 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.996 / def 1.135 | Plymouth attack 0.669 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.420 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Millwall (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Plymouth kick off?
Millwall vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 23 October 2024 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Plymouth?
Millwall 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Millwall vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Plymouth part of?
Millwall vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 66% chance of winning, Plymouth a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Millwall and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Millwall 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Millwall and Plymouth in?
Millwall (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Millwall vs Plymouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.00) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.43
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.74
0.73
Plymouth xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
65.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Millwall and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Millwall and 0.73 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 15D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.11 PPG from 56 outings (16W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.23 PPG, Plymouth on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Millwall's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 0.61 points per game from 28 outings (3W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 16W 14D 26L in their last 56 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Plymouth away?
Millwall's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.39 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Millwall or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Plymouth in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2025, when Plymouth won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Millwall's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Millwall
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2025, when Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Plymouth?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 39%, Plymouth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Millwall) and 46% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 29% of games; Plymouth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Millwall's recent matches and 46% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Millwall's recent games and 46% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Plymouth tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Millwall edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Plymouth 1-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 2.00 xG and Plymouth 0.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Millwall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 66% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 11%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 38%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.23 PPG, Plymouth 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.