Hull City 0-2 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 43%, yet in-form Sheffield Wednesday provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Sheffield Wednesday in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 2W 5D 3L at The MKM Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Wednesday are 0.60 PPG clear of Hull City in recent Championship fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 61% versus Sheffield Wednesday 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 52% | Sheffield Wednesday 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.34 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.923 / defence 1.101 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.870 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.062. Data: 62 Hull City games / 62 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 27%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sheffield Wednesday 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sheffield Wednesday (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Sheffield Wednesday 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Hull City 1.34 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.923 / def 1.101 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.870 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sheffield Wednesday xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City 0 - 2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 43% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Wednesday 1W.
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Hull City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.87x) against Hull City's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hull City and 1.02 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 19D 21L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (20W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Hull City against 1.16 for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 8W 13D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (9W 2D 19L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 19D 21L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 20W 12D 30L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Hull City's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.23 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Hull City 3-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Sheffield Wednesday 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 50% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hull City's recent matches and 27% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Hull City 0-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.34 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 43% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 27%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 52%, Sheffield Wednesday 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.37 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.