Derby 0-1 Leeds – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Leeds encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Leeds make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 December 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Leeds's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Leeds are 1.00 PPG clear of Derby in recent Championship fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Derby 0W, Leeds 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Leeds winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Leeds goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Leeds 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 52% | Leeds 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.17 xG and Leeds 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.033 / defence 1.082 | Leeds attack 1.168 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.022. Data: 23 Derby games / 69 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 32% | Draw 30% | Leeds 38%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Leeds 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leeds at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leeds if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Leeds 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 32% | Draw 30% | Leeds 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.17 / Leeds 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.033 / def 1.082 | Leeds attack 1.168 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Leeds (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Leeds xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Leeds kick off?
Derby vs Leeds kicked off at 17:45 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Leeds?
Derby 0 - 1 Leeds.
Where is Derby vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Leeds part of?
Derby vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 32% chance of winning, Leeds a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Leeds?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Leeds 1W.
What form are Derby and Leeds in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Leeds (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.03) and Leeds's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Leeds's attack (1.17x) against Derby's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
32%
3.11
30%
3.36
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Derby xG
Total xG
2.46
1.29
Leeds xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Derby and 1.29 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Derby have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 35W 14D 20L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leeds's form line: 42W 14D 13L from 69 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Derby against 2.03 for Leeds. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derby have posted 2.03 PPG from 34 outings (21W 6D 7L).
On the road, Leeds have gone 15W 10D 9L from 34 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leeds's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.81 scored and 0.80 conceded. Leeds's attacking output running into Derby's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Leeds in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Leeds
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Leeds in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 14D 20L in their last 69 games (1.72 PPG), while Leeds have gone 42W 14D 13L in their last 69 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Leeds away?
Derby's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.03 PPG; Leeds away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Derby or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Leeds in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
0
Draws
2
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Leeds?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Leeds have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Derby 0-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 53%, Leeds 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Derby) and 38% (Leeds).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Leeds in 44%; Leeds in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Leeds?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Derby's recent matches and 38% of Leeds's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Leeds's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Leeds tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Leeds in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.17 xG and Leeds 1.29 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Leeds attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 32% | Draw 30% | Leeds 38%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 52%, Leeds 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Leeds's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.72 PPG, Leeds 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Leeds (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.