Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cardiff at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Birmingham travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Birmingham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Birmingham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Birmingham's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cardiff 1.00 PPG, Birmingham 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 0 for Birmingham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Birmingham in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 50% versus Birmingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 52% | Birmingham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.19 xG and Birmingham 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.894 / defence 0.956 | Birmingham attack 0.892 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.974. Data: 48 Cardiff games / 48 Birmingham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 43% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 25%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Birmingham 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 30% | Birmingham 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 43% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Cardiff 1.19 / Birmingham 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.894 / def 0.956 | Birmingham attack 0.892 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Birmingham xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Birmingham kick off?
Cardiff vs Birmingham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Cardiff 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Cardiff vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Birmingham part of?
Cardiff vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 43% chance of winning, Birmingham a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cardiff and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Birmingham?
Record (2 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 2 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Birmingham in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.18
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.02
0.83
Birmingham xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.83 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 16W 8D 24L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 21L across 48 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Birmingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.17 PPG, Birmingham on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 8W 4D 12L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 4W 9D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Early Season
Birmingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 16W 8D 24L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 12W 15D 21L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Birmingham away?
Cardiff's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.17 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Birmingham in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cardiff's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cardiff
2
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Birmingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 3, Birmingham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2024, when Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Birmingham?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 38%, Birmingham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cardiff) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 46% of games; Birmingham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cardiff's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Birmingham tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Birmingham 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.19 xG and Birmingham 0.83 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Birmingham attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 43% | Draw 31% | Birmingham 25%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 52%, Birmingham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Birmingham's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.17 PPG, Birmingham 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.