Zlin 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zlin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letna plays host to Zlin versus Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zlin have collected 1.86 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin at Stadion Letna this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.76 in Zlin's favour (1.86 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Zlin half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 57% versus Dukla Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zlin 43% | Dukla Praha 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.43 xG and Dukla Praha 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.940 / defence 1.033 | Dukla Praha attack 0.809 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.197. Data: 7 Zlin games / 37 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 47% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 26%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Dukla Praha 3.85. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 67% | Dukla Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 47% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Zlin 1.43 / Dukla Praha 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.940 / def 1.033 | Dukla Praha attack 0.809 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Zlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dukla Praha xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Zlin 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Dukla Praha part of?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 47% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zlin and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Dukla Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.81x) against Zlin's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.69
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.43
1.00
Dukla Praha xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Zlin and 1.00 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zlin's recent record stands at 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 3L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zlin by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Dukla Praha away?
Zlin's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 2.33 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
From 3 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 67%, Dukla Praha 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zlin and 33% for Dukla Praha.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 33%; Dukla Praha in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Zlin's recent matches and 33% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zlin's recent games and 33% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 8, as Zlin and Dukla Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.43 xG and Dukla Praha 1.00 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Dukla Praha attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 47% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 26%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 43%, Dukla Praha 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.