Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host Bohemians 1905 at in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.86 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zbrojovka Brno's home record at : 3W 0D 1L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.86 PPG (Zbrojovka Brno) versus 1.50 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Bohemians 1905 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 43% versus Bohemians 1905 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Bohemians 1905 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.56 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.006 / defence 0.992 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.928 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.307. Data: 7 Zbrojovka Brno games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 45% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. Zbrojovka Brno hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zbrojovka Brno at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 50% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 45% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.56 / Bohemians 1905 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.006 / def 0.992 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.928 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.85
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.76
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
16.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 2.25 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
From 2 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 50%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Zbrojovka Brno and 75% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 75% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.