Táborsko 0-5 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Táborsko at 43%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Táborsko host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Kvapilova in Czech Liga, Relegation - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Táborsko — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Táborsko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Táborsko have won 0, Baník Ostrava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Táborsko 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Táborsko attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.850 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Táborsko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Táborsko games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Táborsko 43% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 30%. Fair-value odds: Táborsko 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Táborsko as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Táborsko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation - Final | Venue: Stadion Kvapilova • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Táborsko 43% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Táborsko 1.45 / Baník Ostrava 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Táborsko attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.850 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Táborsko (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Táborsko xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Stadion Kvapilova.
What was the final score in Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava?
Táborsko 0 - 5 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kvapilova.
What competition is Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava is a Relegation - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Táborsko a 43% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Táborsko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Táborsko and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Táborsko and Baník Ostrava?
Record (1 meetings): Táborsko 0W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Táborsko and Baník Ostrava in?
Táborsko (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Táborsko's attack at 0.85x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Táborsko's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Táborsko Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.58
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Táborsko xG
Total xG
2.63
1.18
Baník Ostrava xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Táborsko and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Táborsko and 1.18 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Táborsko have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Táborsko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Táborsko.
Goals in Recent Form
Táborsko are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Táborsko have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 0%.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Táborsko
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Táborsko and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Táborsko have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Táborsko or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Táborsko have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Táborsko
0
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Táborsko and Baník Ostrava?
From 2 meetings on record, Táborsko have won 0, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Táborsko and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Táborsko 0-5 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Táborsko and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Táborsko home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Táborsko play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Táborsko's recent matches and 0% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Táborsko vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Táborsko's matches and 100% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Táborsko and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Táborsko have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Táborsko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Táborsko 0-5 at Stadion Kvapilova, Relegation - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Táborsko 1.45 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Táborsko fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.18 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Táborsko attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Táborsko 43% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 30%, with Táborsko to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Táborsko 100%, Baník Ostrava 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Táborsko shipped 5 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.