Slovácko 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Slovácko take on Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slovácko, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 44% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.07 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.747 / defence 0.770 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.041 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.154. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Slovácko games / 44 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 37% | Mlada Boleslav 28%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Mlada Boleslav 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 37% | Mlada Boleslav 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Slovácko 1.07 / Mlada Boleslav 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.747 / def 0.770 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.041 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slovácko 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovácko's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.82
37%
2.73
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.99
0.93
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.93 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 12D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (17W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slovácko's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.42 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2024, when Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
5
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Slovácko 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 46%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovácko) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 29% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovácko's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.07 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.93 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.75 / defence 0.77 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 35% | Draw 37% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.