Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 6W 1D 3L at Andruv stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sigma Olomouc. A 0.60 PPG lead over Teplice (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 4 for Teplice and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Teplice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.46 xG and Teplice 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.222 / defence 0.880 | Teplice attack 1.161 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Sigma Olomouc games / 43 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.46 / Teplice 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.222 / def 0.880 | Teplice attack 1.161 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Teplice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 3W | Draws 3 | Teplice 4W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.22x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.16x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.34
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.77
1.31
Teplice xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.31 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 16L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.34 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.28 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.91 PPG; Teplice away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Teplice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 35%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 48% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Teplice in 30%; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 56% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 48% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Teplice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.