Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Slovácko travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovácko — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.50 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Slovácko and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 67% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.78 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / defence 1.361 | Slovácko attack 0.849 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.204. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sigma Olomouc games / 44 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Slovácko 3.57. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 80% | Slovácko 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.78 / Slovácko 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / def 1.361 | Slovácko attack 0.849 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 3 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.64
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.18
1.39
Slovácko xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.39 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (16W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.22 PPG, Slovácko on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.43 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovácko have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 65%, Slovácko 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 52% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 52% of Slovácko's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.78 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 1.36 against Slovácko attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.22 PPG, Slovácko 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.