Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karviná make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.30 for Karviná — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 80% of Karviná's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sigma Olomouc, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Karviná — Karviná have 1 win, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Karviná — a Karviná win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 66% versus Karviná 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 63% | Karviná 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.17 xG and Karviná 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.115 / defence 1.155 | Karviná attack 0.992 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.167. Karviná's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sigma Olomouc's projected output up. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 57 games and Karviná's last 57.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 22% | Karviná 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.80 | Draw 4.46 | Karviná 4.53. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Sigma Olomouc 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 80% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 22% | Karviná 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.17 / Karviná 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.115 / def 1.155 | Karviná attack 0.992 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Karviná xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 55% chance of winning, Karviná a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.11x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.99x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 57 games and Karviná's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
55%
1.80
22%
4.46
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.51
1.34
Karviná xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
3%
39.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.34 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 13D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (18W 15D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.17 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.14 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Karviná have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Karviná away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.45 PPG; Karviná away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 69%, Karviná 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Sigma Olomouc and 59% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 55% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 59% of Karviná's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 79% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.17 xG and Karviná 1.34 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Karviná attack 0.99 / defence 1.39, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 55% | Draw 22% | Karviná 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Karviná 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG, Karviná 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.