Karviná 0-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 0.60 PPG clear of Karviná over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Karviná, 3 for Slavia Praha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Karviná 1–5 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 56% versus Slavia Praha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 57% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.10 xG and Slavia Praha 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.129 / defence 0.958 | Slavia Praha attack 1.056 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.182. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.711, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Karviná's projected output down. Data: built from Karviná's last 58 games and Slavia Praha's last 58.
Result probabilities: Karviná 32% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 37%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.10 | Draw 3.28 | Slavia Praha 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Karviná 60% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 32% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Karviná 1.10 / Slavia Praha 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.129 / def 0.958 | Slavia Praha attack 1.056 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slavia Praha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Karviná 0 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slavia Praha part of?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 32% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Karviná and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Karviná vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 1.13x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.06x) against Karviná's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 58 games and Slavia Praha's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.28
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Slavia Praha xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Karviná and 1.20 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 16D 28L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Slavia Praha's form line: 49W 10D 4L from 63 games, 2.49 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 31 home games (11W 8D 12L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 20W 8D 3L from their last 31 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.08 scored and 0.56 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Karviná (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 49W 10D 4L in their last 63 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.32 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 5-1 Karviná on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 52%, Slavia Praha 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Karviná) and 42% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 48%; Karviná have failed to score in 29% of games; Slavia Praha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Karviná's recent matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Karviná's recent games and 42% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Karviná's recent matches and 61% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Karviná 0-4 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.10 xG and Slavia Praha 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Slavia Praha attack 1.06 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 32% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 37%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.