Mlada Boleslav 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slovácko travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 3). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mlada Boleslav stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Slovácko have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Mlada Boleslav are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Slovácko 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–1 Slovácko — a Slovácko win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Slovácko trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Slovácko 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Slovácko 45%). Note also that Slovácko surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Mlada Boleslav recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.76 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / defence 1.162 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 60 games and Slovácko's last 60.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.29 | Draw 3.98 | Slovácko 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 80% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.76 / Slovácko 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.062 / def 1.162 | Slovácko attack 0.978 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 44% chance of winning, Slovácko a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.06) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 60 games and Slovácko's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.98
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.22
1.46
Slovácko xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.46 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 22W 19D 23L from 64 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 24L across 64 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.33 PPG, Slovácko on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 12W 11D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 9W 8D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 19D 23L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 23W 17D 24L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Slovácko away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.52 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Mlada Boleslav have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Jul 2024, when Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 3-0 Slovácko.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Slovácko have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 68%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Mlada Boleslav) and 48% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 48% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 48% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 71% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.76 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Slovácko 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG, Slovácko 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.