Baník Ostrava 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mlada Boleslav travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baník Ostrava at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Mlada Boleslav — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Baník Ostrava have won 2, Mlada Boleslav 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Baník Ostrava 3–1 Mlada Boleslav — a Baník Ostrava win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 59% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.35 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.066 / defence 1.105 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.940 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 60 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 60.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.77 | Draw 3.53 | Mlada Boleslav 2.81. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Baník Ostrava 36% and Mlada Boleslav 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.35 / Mlada Boleslav 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.066 / def 1.105 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.940 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 36% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.07x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 60 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.34 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 23W 14D 26L from 63 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 23L across 63 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 12W 6D 13L from their last 31 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.41 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.35 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Sep 2026, when Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 58%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Baník Ostrava) and 55% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 26% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Baník Ostrava's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 71% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.35 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.