Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.60 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 2W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 53% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.12 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.327 / defence 0.693 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.025 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.286. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Mlada Boleslav games / 43 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 13%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Bohemians 1905 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.12 / Bohemians 1905 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.327 / def 0.693 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.025 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 63% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 5 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.33) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.02x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.30
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.04
0.91
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
62.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.91 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 15D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.31 PPG from 45 outings (16W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.31 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.98 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.57 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, Bohemians 1905 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mlada Boleslav) and 56% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 52% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 56% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.