Karviná 0-4 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karviná at 1.70 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Karviná, 3 for Hradec Králové and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | Hradec Králové 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.044 / defence 1.171 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Karviná games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 33% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 42%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 33% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Karviná 1.39 / Hradec Králové 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.044 / def 1.171 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Hradec Králové xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Karviná 0 - 4 Hradec Králové.
Where is Karviná vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Hradec Králové part of?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 33% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Karviná and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in?
Karviná (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Karviná's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
33%
3.02
25%
4.07
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.99
1.60
Hradec Králové xG
3.02
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Karviná and 1.60 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 16D 30L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.39 PPG from 66 outings (25W 17D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 1.15 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 11W 8D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (9W 8D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.15 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 20W 16D 30L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 25W 17D 24L in their last 66 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Hradec Králové away?
Karviná's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.28 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Karviná or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Karviná have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, Hradec Králové 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Karviná) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 31%; Karviná have failed to score in 31% of games; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 41% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Karviná's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Karviná 0-4 at Městský Stadión, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.60 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 33% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 42%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Hradec Králové 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.15 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.