Hradec Králové 1-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 0, Sparta Praha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Sparta Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.001 / defence 1.033 | Sparta Praha attack 1.357 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.135. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.673 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Hradec Králové games / 40 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 28% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 2.13. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | Sparta Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 28% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Hradec Králové 1.17 / Sparta Praha 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.001 / def 1.033 | Sparta Praha attack 1.357 / def 0.673 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sparta Praha xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 28% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.91
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.76
1.59
Sparta Praha xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.59 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 8D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.36 PPG from 44 outings (31W 11D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 9W 2D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.19 points per game from 21 outings (13W 7D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.32 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 31W 11D 2L in their last 44 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.38 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Sparta Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hradec Králové) and 43% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 43%; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 52% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 43% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 1-3 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.59 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.67, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 28% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 47%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 52%, Sparta Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.