Bohemians 1905 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Zlin — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bohemians 1905 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Zlin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 1–4 Zlin — a Zlin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 56% and Zlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Zlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.27 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.990 / defence 1.068 | Zlin attack 0.804 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.196. Zlin's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 40 games and Zlin's last 40.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.53 | Draw 5.31 | Zlin 6.35. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Bohemians 1905 2.27 / Zlin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.990 / def 1.068 | Zlin attack 0.804 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zlin xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 65% chance of winning, Zlin a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.99) and Zlin's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 40 games and Zlin's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.31
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.30
1.03
Zlin xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
61.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.03 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 19W 8D 18L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 21L across 45 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 8W 6D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 1W 9D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 67%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.36 PPG; Zlin away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won Zlin 1-4 Bohemians 1905.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 64%, Zlin 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 59% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians 1905's games and 59% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 59% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 64% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 11, as Bohemians 1905 and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.27 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 65% | Draw 19% | Zlin 16%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Zlin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.