Hradec Králové 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Malsovicka arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Malsovicka arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 0.90 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 3 for Pardubice and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 35% versus Pardubice 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.46 xG and Pardubice 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.896 / defence 1.033 | Pardubice attack 0.911 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.257. Data: 33 Hradec Králové games / 33 Pardubice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 29%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hradec Králové 40% | Pardubice 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Hradec Králové 1.46 / Pardubice 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.896 / def 1.033 | Pardubice attack 0.911 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Pardubice a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Record (7 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.90) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.52
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.64
1.18
Pardubice xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.18 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 8D 15L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 6W 7D 24L from 37 games, 0.68 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 3D 15L from 18 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 6W 7D 24L in their last 37 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.61 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pardubice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hradec Králové 39% BTTS, Pardubice 28%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Hradec Králové) and 44% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pardubice in 72%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 28% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 44% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.46 xG and Pardubice 1.18 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 29%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.