FK Jablonec 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Teplice encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Teplice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Teplice away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Teplice's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2023, ended FK Jablonec 3–2 Teplice — a FK Jablonec win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Teplice — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 50% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 39% | Teplice 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Teplice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.049 / defence 0.886 | Teplice attack 1.005 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 42 games and Teplice's last 42.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 37% | Draw 32% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.70 | Draw 3.14 | Teplice 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).

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