Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Plzen (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích than their overall form suggests.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 0.70 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Plzen in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Baník Ostrava 3W, Plzen 5W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Plzen — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 34% versus Plzen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 40% | Plzen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Plzen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.777 / defence 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.259 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.258. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Baník Ostrava games / 42 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 28% | Draw 31% | Plzen 41%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Plzen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 10% | Plzen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 28% | Draw 31% | Plzen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.15 / Plzen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.777 / def 0.895 | Plzen attack 1.259 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Plzen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 4 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 1 | Plzen 5W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Plzen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.78x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.26x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.23
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.57
1.42
Plzen xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.42 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 10D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.68 PPG from 47 outings (22W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 8W 4D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.64 points per game from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.79 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Plzen have gone 22W 13D 12L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.27 PPG; Plzen away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plzen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-4 on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Baník Ostrava) and 41% (Plzen) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Baník Ostrava) and 64% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Plzen in 41%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 50% of games; Plzen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 41% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 64% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Plzen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 0-4 at Městský stadion ve Vítkovicích, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Plzen 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 28% | Draw 31% | Plzen 41%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 40%, Plzen 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.