Wuhan Zall 0-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Wuhan Zall welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Dongxihu Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Dongxihu Sports Centre this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Wuhan Zall) versus 0.70 (Shenzhen Ruby FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Zall trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Zall 65% and Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 57% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 2.40 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.022 / defence 1.380 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.224. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Wuhan Zall games / 29 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 55% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Zall (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Zall as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 100% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 55% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Wuhan Zall 2.40 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.022 / def 1.380 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.947 / def 1.647 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 55% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 1.02x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.84
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
4.00
1.60
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
9%
11.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
2%
44.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.60 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 17L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 1.00 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 4W 8D 7L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.05 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Zall at 90%, Shenzhen Ruby FC at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Wuhan Zall and 74% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Wuhan Zall's games and 74% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 74% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shenzhen Ruby FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Wuhan Zall 0-3 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 2.40 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.02 / defence 1.38 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.65, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 55% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 57%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 1.00 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.