Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Shandong Luneng at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Shandong Luneng 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Shandong Luneng 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42% | Shandong Luneng 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.783 / defence 0.962 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.078 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.125. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 25 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 / Shandong Luneng 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.783 / def 0.962 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.078 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Shandong Luneng xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 32% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.78) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.43
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Shandong Luneng xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.17 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 10D 15L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 24W 6D 3L from 33 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Venue Form
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 10W 4D 3L from 17 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.03 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 6D 3L in their last 33 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.41 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 47% for Shandong Luneng.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 41%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 47% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 39%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%, Shandong Luneng 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.