Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 3 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 63% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 49% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.76 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.773 / defence 0.903 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.940 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.354. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Wuhan Three Towns games / 57 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.00. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Hangzhou Greentown lead the H2H ledger, but Wuhan Three Towns carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.76 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.773 / def 0.903 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.940 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 52% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.91
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.15 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 22W 16D 19L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 26W 10D 21L from 57 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 1.44 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.84 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 10D 21L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.43 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
6
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Hangzhou Greentown have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 79% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 79% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.76 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Hangzhou Greentown win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 49%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.