Tianjin Teda 0-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.04 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.937 / defence 0.977 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.960 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.438. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Tianjin Teda games / 11 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 24%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Yunnan Yukun 4.17. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Tianjin Teda 2.04 / Yunnan Yukun 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.937 / def 0.977 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.960 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Yunnan Yukun xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 52% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (0.96x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.21
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.38
1.35
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
3%
31.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.35 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 0-3 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Yunnan Yukun.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.04 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 24%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.