Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shijiazhuang Y. J.. A 1.30 PPG lead over Shenzhen Ruby FC (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 3 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.35 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.886 / defence 0.987 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.864 / defence 1.716. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.221. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.716 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 52 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.35 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.886 / def 0.987 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.864 / def 1.716 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 65% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (5 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.86x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.67
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.40
1.04
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
1%
77.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.04 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 16W 17D 19L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 34L across 52 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shijiazhuang Y. J. by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 6W 9D 10L from 25 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.92 scored and 2.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 34L in their last 52 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.08 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 68% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 36% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 52% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 68% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.35 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.04 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.72, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 14%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shijiazhuang Y. J. arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.