Shandong Luneng 6-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Shandong Luneng welcome Meizhou Kejia to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 8W 2D 0L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shandong Luneng are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shandong Luneng, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 49% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 60% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.88 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.465 / defence 0.623 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.977 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.623 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Shandong Luneng games / 53 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 80% | Draw 14% | Meizhou Kejia 6%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | Meizhou Kejia 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 40% | Meizhou Kejia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 80% | Draw 14% | Meizhou Kejia 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 50% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.88 / Meizhou Kejia 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.465 / def 0.623 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.977 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Meizhou Kejia xG
50%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng 6 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 80% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Shandong Luneng 2W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.47) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
80%
1.25
14%
6.94
6%
17.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.62
0.74
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.94
14%
Draw
17.67
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
6%
17.83
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.74 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 53 games, going 33W 11D 9L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.28 PPG from 53 outings (19W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 21W 3D 1L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.32 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 33W 11D 9L in their last 53 games (2.08 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.64 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 36%, Meizhou Kejia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Shandong Luneng and 52% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 40% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 52% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 6-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.88 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.74 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.47 / defence 0.62 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 80% | Draw 14% | Meizhou Kejia 6%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 60%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.84 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.