Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Cangzhou Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.40 for Meizhou Kejia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shijiazhuang Y. J. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Meizhou Kejia in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2023, ended 3–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% versus Meizhou Kejia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / defence 1.187 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.986 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.184. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 60 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Meizhou Kejia 3.45. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% | Meizhou Kejia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 / Meizhou Kejia 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / def 1.187 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.986 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Meizhou Kejia xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.99x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.16
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.19
1.39
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.39 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (22W 13D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.32 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.38 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.17 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, Meizhou Kejia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 33% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.39 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.