Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.40 for Meizhou Kejia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 80% of Meizhou Kejia's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Jun 2023, ended Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3–2 Meizhou Kejia — a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% versus Meizhou Kejia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / defence 1.187 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.986 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.184. Meizhou Kejia's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output up. Data: built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 60 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 60.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.13 | Draw 4.16 | Meizhou Kejia 3.44. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 / Meizhou Kejia 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.868 / def 1.187 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.986 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Meizhou Kejia xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.99x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 60 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.16
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.19
1.39
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.39 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (22W 13D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.32 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 8W 11D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.38 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.17 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won Meizhou Kejia 4-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2024: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, Meizhou Kejia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 33% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 72% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.39 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 29%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.