Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Changchun Yatai are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shenzhen Ruby FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Changchun Yatai have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 1–4 with Changchun Yatai winning.
It is worth noting that Changchun Yatai have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66% | Changchun Yatai 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.698 / defence 1.611 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.181. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 60 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Changchun Yatai 1.96. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 / Changchun Yatai 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.698 / def 1.611 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 25% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Record (5 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 4W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
25%
4.04
24%
4.09
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.73
Changchun Yatai xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
22.68
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.73 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 12W 6D 41L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 19W 19D 21L from 59 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Changchun Yatai are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.87 PPG from 30 outings (8W 2D 20L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.39 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.42 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 41L in their last 59 games (0.71 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 19W 19D 21L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.87 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 60% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Changchun Yatai in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 60% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.73 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.61 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%, Changchun Yatai 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.