Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-5 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Beijing Guoan to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Cangzhou Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 1.70 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 2–6 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.857 / defence 0.922 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.877 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Data: 57 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 57 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% | Beijing Guoan 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 / Beijing Guoan 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.857 / def 0.922 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.877 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 5 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.86) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.21
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.98 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 19W 17D 21L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 27W 15D 15L from 57 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.67 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 27W 15D 15L in their last 57 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.21 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 64% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 64% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-5 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.