Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-5 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Beijing Guoan to Cangzhou Stadium in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 1.70 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2023, ended Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2–6 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.857 / defence 0.922 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.877 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Data: built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 57 games and Beijing Guoan's last 57.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.49 | Draw 3.21 | Beijing Guoan 3.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 / Beijing Guoan 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.857 / def 0.922 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.877 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 5 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.86) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 57 games and Beijing Guoan's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.21
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Beijing Guoan xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.98 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 19W 17D 21L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 27W 15D 15L from 57 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 10D 10L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 7D 9L from their last 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.67 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 27W 15D 15L in their last 57 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.21 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 6-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 June 2024: Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 64% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 64% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 78% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-5 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 29%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.30 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.